* I think this is the longest-range use of a ballistic missile in anger, possibly ever?

* This seems to reveal previously-unknown range of Iranian ballistic missiles and, if true, could touch basically all of Europe?

Of course, there is a significant gap between Iran possessing the capability, having the temperament to use it, and actually doing so.

The Wikipedia article has said they had missiles that can range 4300km since 2019 (as in the article was updated in 2019) https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Shahab-5&oldid=91... . If Wikipedia has known about it for 7 years, surely military planners were already aware.

Diplomacy was working fine, per high-ranking diplomats: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2026/03/18/americas-...

Yeah, what's it about peoples of the third world that they're always fanatical, that they're always out to destroy the first world... https://theconversation.com/orientalism-edward-saids-groundb... / https://archive.vn/HoEk5

True but they have also literally launched multiple orbital satellites from iran on iranian rockets. Eg. The Noor 2 spy satellite and before that the Noor 1 series https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noor_2_(satellite)

These are in orbit to this day. They regularly post images it takes of US military bases. Essentially it’s similar to how sputnik was a demonstration of icbm capability. Iran can launch a first generation ICBM right now. Pointless if they use a conventional payload (too small payload to be cost effective militarily) and a non manoeuvrable warhead (would just be intercepted) and so these aren’t used militarily but essentially everyone acting shocked they can hit 4000km range was not paying attention.

I think one of the problems we are having right now is that we have leaders who actively believed the downplaying of Irans military capabilities. It’s one thing for the common civilian to think the enemies missiles are made of cardboard and tanks of paper but it’s another when the leader of a nation believes it. Now here we are with a war that’s stalemated and no way out.

Even from a racist perspective that's completely wrong; Iranians are white, the name "Iran" literally means "Land of the Aryans".

Was that the problem?

The US handling of the situation seems the elephant in the room.

Intercepted? In the UK, by what? London has no missile defence system that I am aware of.

We've been hinting about these capabilities for decades [0]. A lot of what is being brought up now is stuff a number of us touched on during the Obama years.

None of this is really hidden either - it would be brought up in think tanks and even undergrad classes if you attended a target program.

Civilian leaders have always had a hands-off approach to Defense and NatSec policy - once you show them how close to a polycrisis everything is they quickly defer responsibility. It's actually pretty similar to working in a corporate environment - it's all about managing upwards.

[0] - https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world/middleeast/29missil...

That might not work with the current administration. Which probably a/the problem.

There hasn't been significant churn in the NatSec space aside from political appointees, and core policymakers like Doshi, Maestro, Allison, Colby, and even Hill have worked with administrations irrespective of party affiliation.

Iran's missiles are used as a terror weapon against civilian population, which is hardly what anyone would consider the optimal use of a rather expensive ballistic missile.

No reason (apart for already proven suicidal tendencies) not to fire one on New York just for the terror value

Classic. An advanced tech US missile hits a school and kills 200 schoolgirls? "A tragic mistake, it happens in war". A much less advanced Iranian rocket hits a building? "Terrorists! They point their weapons at civilians!"

Since Iran was attacked and it has a right to defend itself, we should give it more precise weapons so it can hit directly the military headquarters in central Tel Aviv.

They've also sucessfuly been used against energy and military infrastructure.

And the friends are hosting american soldiers and bases.

I kind of doubt it's enough. This wouldn't be another 9/11, it would be merely be retaliation.

This launch demonstrates that if the answer to both of those questions is still no, they can still place them at threat.

Look at how Ukraine has denied Russia access to most of the Black Sea. It's going to be real hard to stop Iran from creating enough uncertainty to ease the worries of the shipping world. Iran will have to say they are done threatening the straight.

For Iran, it seems the regime will stay in power, you can't remove them from the air. The geography and population size of Iran will prove more challenging than Iraq or Afghanistan. There is very little support for Trump's War. They never sought to persuade the people, it appears they have no plan b (which they wish to be illegal /s)

Hubris is an apt way to describe Trump's approach to Iran. One evidence to this is that they thought Venezuela was the model for Iran. A SA dictator is nothing like a religious movement that has taken root for ~50 years.

What does winning look like for the US & Israel? Trump has already claimed they won, but have more winning to do. What they have said changes daily and between who's talking. I imagine this will continue after hostilities end, they will backfill their goals to claim they "won", like so many other things they do this with.

The real winners from this? Probably Russia and China more than others.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraine_could_equip_its_f_16s...

> previously-unknown

It was implied by Iran's space program.

There's a reason most regional powers also invested in a space program as well as a civilian uncles program. The name of the game is dual-use technologies.

The Biden admin also warned about Iran-NK collaboration on building these kinds of capabilities [0]

[0] - https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/us-officia...

It didn't have to be this way but they decided this to turn into a fight of survival for Iran and destroy any option for a peaceful resolution. Now they are going to pay the price.

Not condoning anyone but shows the priority of both sides.

This one was just this week: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-execution-teen-wrestler-ja...

So there's that.

The evil of your enemy does not excuse your own strategic stupidity or cruelty.

Of course it will be hard to completely avoid civilian casualties in the long run, I fear but yeah Iran has been pretty measured. Iran's fight is with the US imperialists and Israel and not the people that live in the region.

Surely the US are using civilians as human shields?

They are infamous for fulminating against liberals, plotting to kill enemies, torturing and hanging dissidents from cranes, persecuting minorities and women, funding terror cells, and fleecing their citizens to enrich themselves.

Many of the comments here suffer from a misguided refusal to be impressed by the regime's reputation, as though anyone the American establishment criticises must automatically be righteous.

And let us not act like the decades of sanction were not designed to do exactly this. Sanctions mean you create as much hardships as possible for the people in hope they topple their government. They nearly never work but here we are.

> Contrary to popular belief, economic sanctions are ineffective in fulfilling their objectives. Historical observations from Russia to Cuba and Iran reveal that the more sanctions are designed to pressure the ruling class, the harder ordinary citizens are hit. Leaders often perceive sanctions as a means to enhance nationalism, portraying the United States and its allies as hostile. In many instances, such actions have only strengthened their hold on power while stifling dissent internally.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yljdgwppzo

As for the protests, the truth is also that these were not peaceful protests. Mossads agents had been arming people and instructing them to riot. Hundreds of police offers have been murdered and mosques have been burned down. Mossad agents have been instructed to fire at protestors to increase the death toll.

Yes, there has been valid criticism and unhappiness with the government. But most of these people had been protesting for economic reasons. They didn't want to see their country invaded.

Today many of the people that had protested in January are joining the mass demonstrations in favor of the Islamic Republic. The war has united the Iranians.

> “Foreign actors are arming the protesters in Iran with live firearms, which is the reason for the hundreds of regime personnel killed,” wrote Tamir Morag, the diplomatic correspondent for Israel’s Channel 14, during the uprising. “Everyone is free to guess who is behind it.” Morag and his network are well known for their close ties to Netanyahu.

https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-ministry-of-intelligence...

You also find the some information in a Israeli Newspaper:

> On December 29, what is dubbed the Mossad X/Twitter account in Farsi encouraged Iranians to protest against the Iranian regime, telling them that it is literally physically with them at the demonstrations.

> “Go out together into the streets. The time has come,” the Mossad wrote. “We are with you,” it added. “Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.” [...]

> Foreign actors had armed Iranians to help them fight against the regime’s forces being used to crack down on and oppress protesters, Channel 14’s Tamir Morag reported Tuesday. Iran’s foreign minister retweeted the report for his own agenda.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-883524

See also interview with Prof. Marandi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-tcwcon30M

He claims the a nurse was burned alive in a clinic by rioters.

No they haven't. The US started phasing out carpet bombing[0] half a century ago. You discredit yourself by making such trivially falsifiable assertions.

The US and Israel use precision strikes. It is why the ratio of targets per sortie is by far the highest ever recorded in a major conflict.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carpet_bombing

We in the West, well we are aiding the US in this war by allowing it to operate from military bases in our countries. We deserve it for looking the other way while Israel has been mass murdering Palestinians for more than two years now.

At least Spain showed some guts.

Of course it will also potentially cause suffering in the global south but that is on those that started the war.

Maybe there have been further attacks today that I missed but if true that would be an huge escalation.

My last information was that China has no problem getting oil but that was like two days ago.

Which is notable since it’s about the same distance from Southern Iran to Diego Garcia (3,800km) as it is from Northern Iran to London.

The question of whether the world can assume its security on some religious rulings of some Ayatollas is still standing, as these rulings can apparently be changed or bypassed.

More importantly, it's pretty clear that the geopolitical rulings are, well, geopolitical in nature. Iran is a nuclear threshold state; its strategy is to come as close to the breakout line as it can and extract concessions for not crossing it. The supposed nuclear fatwa is just public relations strategy. At the point Iran decided the cost/benefit/risk/reward of crossing the threshold made sense, it would be updated.

Wikipedia has romanized: [singular] marji'; plural marāji'.

Can anyone blame them for considering developing nuclear weapons for real now? I can't.

Donald Trump does not care about protesters in Iran. His idea of regime change is "keep the regime and change head for someone who will pay me personally".

And Hegseth does not care either. He is proving his manhood.

And Israel have completely different goals, so.

It is not like Saudi were democrats. They have cut that journalist into pieces. They are violent dictatorship on their own right.

And if you tell me that US /Israel are bombing Iran to protect rights of oppressed then I have that wonderful bridge.

in any case, these are the mythical WMDs found in Iraq:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/12/03/world/middlee...

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/16/world/cia-is-said-to-have...

> "These weapons were not part of an active arsenal. They were remnants from Iraq’s arms program in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war."

These are not the "WMD" that led to or had any involvement with 2003, it's dishonest to suggest so

This means there were active facilities, materials and know how even after the war

I don't think much of the world has processed that Iran's ostensible lack of nuclear weapons is purely a matter of will and not capability.

Can you elaborate on what kind of strikes the Ayatollah was carrying out within the old range limit?

The war of choice is really the US's Teutoburg Forest moment.

Now this may be a demonstration and veiled threat, on the other hand if Iran was to fire a missile at continental Europe I would hope that the consequence for them would be to be flattened, so...

Notably, the previous guy issued a religious decree against the development of nuclear weapons. Despite American's favorite propaganda tool for manufacturing consent, "but the WMDs", we have no reason to believe that was ever actually being violated. But you'd better believe it will be now if they think they can pull it off.

“ A weapon of mass destruction is a nuclear, radiological, chemical, biological, or other device that is intended to harm a large number of people”

https://www.dhs.gov/topics/weapons-mass-destruction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapon_of_mass_destruction#Def...

https://unterm.un.org/unterm2/en/view/UNHQ/9626F6CEB2A92C9B8...

Finally, if the regime does not surrender after all this, a nuke could still be used.

Iran have been attacking uninvolved NATO member Turkey for a while now and nothing happens. The USA is already fully engaged into this war while Europe can hardly deal together with Russia, it is doubtful they'd do anything even if it rained down on their territory

Turkey is led by a strongman leader and these are very sensitive to acts of public humiliation. So that's unwise when thinking about any negligible strategic advantage they may gain from these attacks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakba

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balfour_declaration

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purim

Iran is showing the world (especially Europe), that it's more vulnerable than it thinks. Europe has more skin in the game than just the price of oil and nitrogen. Also think about what would happen if Iran is able to recreate something like the Cuban missile crisis now that we've moved a bunch of our military assets to the middle east.

the "notable distance/unexpectedly high range" quoted everywhere seems like a nice war justification: "see, they do have rockets that can threaten us!"

> It is understood the attempted air strike occurred before the UK agreed to let the US use British military bases to hit Iranian sites targeting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/02/middleeast/us-b2-bombers-dieg...

The same Iran that just launched missiles at Diego Garcia, a critical American base? The same one that severely damaged Qatari LNG infrastructure two days ago? The same one that continues sending missile and drone attacks at various targets? Has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz and forced a +50% spike in oil prices? Ruled by the regime that has no intention of going anywhere?

We must have different definitions of destroyed.

They attacked Iran not the other way round. US bases, even if also used by UK which aides US it their war, are legitimate targets.

US imperialism is the greatest threat to the world.

My home country has more than 90M people and 40% of that equates for millions of supporters.

From the outside, you are only hearing the diaspora talking points, which don't realistically represent Iran. Many of them have grievances with the regime, or have been exiled after the Shah.

Iran is a complex country and it's hard for outsiders to grasp it, mainly because the censorship happening on both sides.

I personally think this war was a major mistake, no Iranian is going to cheer for US or Israel after watching their children being killed by them. The west was doing a good job exporting liberal ideas to Iran slowly over the past 3 decades. Some of those were starting to drip into the country, but this war undid all that effort.

US and Israel don't give two fucks for the people of Iran. If they did they wouldn't have been under such crippling sanctions.

Irani people want to control their own destiny, not as a vassal of US-Israel backed power.

Iran's best bet I think is to negotiate with the IRGC to earn reforms. I suspect that if IRGC doesn't feel so threatened they might even get them.

There's a lot of commentary in this post about Iran is now a threat to Europe. Yes the capability might exist but it is not in Iran's interest and have never shown such interest or ambition. India certainly has missiles that can reach parts of Europe, capability does not signal intent.

US and UK have screwed the relation up by organising coup, scuttling democratic processes, downing domestic passenger jet without apology, setting Saddam Hussein and his chemical weapons at them and the economically ravaging them with sanctions.

As for nukes, with Israel and undeclared nuclear power right next door, it's a very reasonable ask for any country that wants to control its own destiny. In fact had it had one, the current conflict would not have happened.

Sobering, and (speaking as an American) all too familiar here at home.

Cults suck.

Which is an impossibility. We're talking about a military force of more than a million religiously fervent men that have martyrdom as a core tenet of their religion. They are not going anywhere, and assasinating their leaders and bombing their bases will not make them easier to enforce anything on.

There are massive protests in favor of the Republic every day. You can not deny the evidence.

And those "proxies" are not "against" America or Israel - they exist solely as resistance groups that counter Israeli aggression, ethic cleansing, land theft etc. You know, like Israel is doing right now in their stated aim of annexing South Lebanon, after displacing over a million people from their homes. Without Israeli aggression and land theft, these resistance groups wouldn't exist.

The might be a reason the whole region hates Israel and the US. Just saying.

It's basically bait for WW3, and luckily so far the EU particularly are not biting.

That’s a lot of traffic

No that’s too easy.

Give hope to Iran / Islamic world for a few months, then take it away.

Unfortunately I’m not sure their current audience is gonna pick up the implied threat.

I don't think they did it this time, but they have in the past.

It's also a bit unreasonable to launch live munitions that have some 90% probability of being intercepted by a given system on a good day, while intending for "just a warning"

David takes a small rock and whips it at a sensitive spot on Goliath’s ankles that most people don’t know about (Diego Garcia)

David knows Goliath will probably dodge it, and most likely kick it away given it’s importance, but there’s a point being made by shooting: if it hits then that’s a win, but if gets knocked down it’s a warning that they know where they need to hit for it to hurt

It also publicizes Iran-NK military cooperation on ballistics development, which the Biden admin warned about [0], as well as Iran-Russia military cooperation (which was obviously much less under-the-radar).

It also shows the merger of the Ukraine conflict with the West Asia conflict, and was a major reason why Fiona Hill argued we entered an unavoidable polycrisis in 2022 [1].

[0] - https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/us-officia...

[1] - https://xcancel.com/FrankRGardner/status/2027098560647348410...

Look at Libya and Ukraine for your most direct examples - give away your nukes, get invaded. South Africa is an odd example that proves the rule: they simply bend the knee to the west.

Nuclear deterrents and mutual assured destruction has been the key driver in preventing large scale conflict in the “postwar period.”

Everyone knows Israel has nukes it’s just a matter of when they can get enough public support to use them

Significantly reduce the frequency of small to medium-scale conflicts, in exchange for an inevitable, possibly apocalyptic nuclear conflict at some point. Maybe not this year, maybe not for centuries, but one day, someone will press the button.